Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 51.5% chance of 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 36% for first, driven by NOAA and Copernicus data confirming 2024 as the warmest year, followed closely by 2023 and 2025 (third at ~0.13°C cooler than 2024). Early 2026 shows above-average warmth—January and February ranked fifth globally—with March featuring extreme U.S. heat anomalies. A key catalyst is the Climate Prediction Center's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through June (80% chance), transitioning to likely El Niño by May-July (61%), which could amplify global mean surface temperature anomalies in the latter half via enhanced Pacific warmth. Berkeley Earth projects 2026 around fourth but notes upside risk from this dynamical shift; upcoming monthly reports from Copernicus and NOAA will refine year-end trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2 52%
1 36%
4 5.1%
3 4.5%
$2,623,045 거래량
$2,623,045 거래량
2026.12.31
1
36%
2
52%
3
5%
4
5%
5
1%
6위 이하
3%
2 52%
1 36%
4 5.1%
3 4.5%
$2,623,045 거래량
$2,623,045 거래량
2026.12.31
1
$414,561 거래량
36%
2
$289,465 거래량
52%
3
$387,897 거래량
5%
4
$386,834 거래량
5%
5
$697,969 거래량
1%
6위 이하
$446,318 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 51.5% chance of 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 36% for first, driven by NOAA and Copernicus data confirming 2024 as the warmest year, followed closely by 2023 and 2025 (third at ~0.13°C cooler than 2024). Early 2026 shows above-average warmth—January and February ranked fifth globally—with March featuring extreme U.S. heat anomalies. A key catalyst is the Climate Prediction Center's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through June (80% chance), transitioning to likely El Niño by May-July (61%), which could amplify global mean surface temperature anomalies in the latter half via enhanced Pacific warmth. Berkeley Earth projects 2026 around fourth but notes upside risk from this dynamical shift; upcoming monthly reports from Copernicus and NOAA will refine year-end trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
거래량
$2,623,045종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 51.5% chance of 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 36% for first, driven by NOAA and Copernicus data confirming 2024 as the warmest year, followed closely by 2023 and 2025 (third at ~0.13°C cooler than 2024). Early 2026 shows above-average warmth—January and February ranked fifth globally—with March featuring extreme U.S. heat anomalies. A key catalyst is the Climate Prediction Center's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through June (80% chance), transitioning to likely El Niño by May-July (61%), which could amplify global mean surface temperature anomalies in the latter half via enhanced Pacific warmth. Berkeley Earth projects 2026 around fourth but notes upside risk from this dynamical shift; upcoming monthly reports from Copernicus and NOAA will refine year-end trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$2,623,045종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 51.5% chance of 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 36% for first, driven by NOAA and Copernicus data confirming 2024 as the warmest year, followed closely by 2023 and 2025 (third at ~0.13°C cooler than 2024). Early 2026 shows above-average warmth—January and February ranked fifth globally—with March featuring extreme U.S. heat anomalies. A key catalyst is the Climate Prediction Center's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through June (80% chance), transitioning to likely El Niño by May-July (61%), which could amplify global mean surface temperature anomalies in the latter half via enhanced Pacific warmth. Berkeley Earth projects 2026 around fourth but notes upside risk from this dynamical shift; upcoming monthly reports from Copernicus and NOAA will refine year-end trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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