Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party regaining House control after the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, with odds implying an 84.5% probability amid Republicans' narrow current majority of 213-212 seats plus 10 tossups. Sustained Democratic leads of 5-6 points in generic ballot polling, including the largest margin in recent Economist/YouGov surveys from February 2026, drive this positioning, compounded by historical midterm penalties for the president's party—typically 25-30 seat losses under unified GOP control. Forecasters like Cook Political recently shifted 18 races toward Democrats, citing special election overperformance and vulnerabilities in battleground districts, while models project potential GOP losses of 10-30 seats despite some redistricting offsets. Presidential approval trends and economic signals further bolster Democratic paths in swing states, though late scandals or turnout shifts could narrow the gap.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$4,496,222 거래량
$4,496,222 거래량
2026.11.03
4% 수익
민주당
85%
공화당
15%
$4,496,222 거래량
$4,496,222 거래량
2026.11.03
4% 수익
민주당
$2,273,377 거래량
85%
공화당
$2,222,855 거래량
15%
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party regaining House control after the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, with odds implying an 84.5% probability amid Republicans' narrow current majority of 213-212 seats plus 10 tossups. Sustained Democratic leads of 5-6 points in generic ballot polling, including the largest margin in recent Economist/YouGov surveys from February 2026, drive this positioning, compounded by historical midterm penalties for the president's party—typically 25-30 seat losses under unified GOP control. Forecasters like Cook Political recently shifted 18 races toward Democrats, citing special election overperformance and vulnerabilities in battleground districts, while models project potential GOP losses of 10-30 seats despite some redistricting offsets. Presidential approval trends and economic signals further bolster Democratic paths in swing states, though late scandals or turnout shifts could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
마켓 개설일: Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
거래량
$4,496,222종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party regaining House control after the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, with odds implying an 84.5% probability amid Republicans' narrow current majority of 213-212 seats plus 10 tossups. Sustained Democratic leads of 5-6 points in generic ballot polling, including the largest margin in recent Economist/YouGov surveys from February 2026, drive this positioning, compounded by historical midterm penalties for the president's party—typically 25-30 seat losses under unified GOP control. Forecasters like Cook Political recently shifted 18 races toward Democrats, citing special election overperformance and vulnerabilities in battleground districts, while models project potential GOP losses of 10-30 seats despite some redistricting offsets. Presidential approval trends and economic signals further bolster Democratic paths in swing states, though late scandals or turnout shifts could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
거래량
$4,496,222종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party regaining House control after the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, with odds implying an 84.5% probability amid Republicans' narrow current majority of 213-212 seats plus 10 tossups. Sustained Democratic leads of 5-6 points in generic ballot polling, including the largest margin in recent Economist/YouGov surveys from February 2026, drive this positioning, compounded by historical midterm penalties for the president's party—typically 25-30 seat losses under unified GOP control. Forecasters like Cook Political recently shifted 18 races toward Democrats, citing special election overperformance and vulnerabilities in battleground districts, while models project potential GOP losses of 10-30 seats despite some redistricting offsets. Presidential approval trends and economic signals further bolster Democratic paths in swing states, though late scandals or turnout shifts could narrow the gap.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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