Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military sites and nuclear facilities, followed by Iranian missile barrages on Israel and regional bases. Escalations persist into mid-April, including Israeli strikes on Tehran oil depots, U.S. naval blockades of Iranian ports, and diplomatic frictions over uranium enrichment in nascent U.S.-Iran mediation efforts via Switzerland. Absent any verified de-escalation signals, ceasefire breakthroughs, or normalization talks between Jerusalem and Tehran—exacerbated by four decades of enmity since the 1979 revolution—structural barriers like mutual hostilities and active conflict dominate, with no scheduled diplomatic summits to shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$42,017 거래량
$42,017 거래량
2026.12.31
$42,017 거래량
$42,017 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military sites and nuclear facilities, followed by Iranian missile barrages on Israel and regional bases. Escalations persist into mid-April, including Israeli strikes on Tehran oil depots, U.S. naval blockades of Iranian ports, and diplomatic frictions over uranium enrichment in nascent U.S.-Iran mediation efforts via Switzerland. Absent any verified de-escalation signals, ceasefire breakthroughs, or normalization talks between Jerusalem and Tehran—exacerbated by four decades of enmity since the 1979 revolution—structural barriers like mutual hostilities and active conflict dominate, with no scheduled diplomatic summits to shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
거래량
$42,017종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military sites and nuclear facilities, followed by Iranian missile barrages on Israel and regional bases. Escalations persist into mid-April, including Israeli strikes on Tehran oil depots, U.S. naval blockades of Iranian ports, and diplomatic frictions over uranium enrichment in nascent U.S.-Iran mediation efforts via Switzerland. Absent any verified de-escalation signals, ceasefire breakthroughs, or normalization talks between Jerusalem and Tehran—exacerbated by four decades of enmity since the 1979 revolution—structural barriers like mutual hostilities and active conflict dominate, with no scheduled diplomatic summits to shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$42,017종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military sites and nuclear facilities, followed by Iranian missile barrages on Israel and regional bases. Escalations persist into mid-April, including Israeli strikes on Tehran oil depots, U.S. naval blockades of Iranian ports, and diplomatic frictions over uranium enrichment in nascent U.S.-Iran mediation efforts via Switzerland. Absent any verified de-escalation signals, ceasefire breakthroughs, or normalization talks between Jerusalem and Tehran—exacerbated by four decades of enmity since the 1979 revolution—structural barriers like mutual hostilities and active conflict dominate, with no scheduled diplomatic summits to shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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