National Weather Service forecasts project a high near 82°F in Austin on April 12, anchoring the 73% market-implied probability for 76°F or higher amid Central Texas's warmer-than-normal spring temperature outlook from NOAA seasonal models. Upper-level ridging supports peak afternoon heating, with light southerly winds and ample sunshine early in the day boosting potential. However, a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon—tied to a Level 2 of 5 severe weather risk—could cap temperatures via cloud cover and convective activity, explaining trader allocations to 74-75°F (13%). Model consensus shows minor spread, with GFS slightly warmer; watch overnight forecast updates from NWS Austin/San Antonio for refinements ahead of resolution based on official observations at Austin-Bergstrom.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on April 12?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 12?
76°F or higher 76%
74-75°F 14%
72-73°F 3.7%
70-71°F 1.6%
$13,814 Vol.
$13,814 Vol.
57°F or below
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
14%
76°F or higher
76%
76°F or higher 76%
74-75°F 14%
72-73°F 3.7%
70-71°F 1.6%
$13,814 Vol.
$13,814 Vol.
57°F or below
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
14%
76°F or higher
76%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts project a high near 82°F in Austin on April 12, anchoring the 73% market-implied probability for 76°F or higher amid Central Texas's warmer-than-normal spring temperature outlook from NOAA seasonal models. Upper-level ridging supports peak afternoon heating, with light southerly winds and ample sunshine early in the day boosting potential. However, a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon—tied to a Level 2 of 5 severe weather risk—could cap temperatures via cloud cover and convective activity, explaining trader allocations to 74-75°F (13%). Model consensus shows minor spread, with GFS slightly warmer; watch overnight forecast updates from NWS Austin/San Antonio for refinements ahead of resolution based on official observations at Austin-Bergstrom.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions