**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 38°C (46.5%) or 39°C (29%) for Madrid on August 7, with 37°C at 16.5%.** Official AEMET guidance and ensemble consensus currently point to a maximum near 37°C under clear skies and light southerly flow, consistent with a persistent subtropical ridge and warm advection from North Africa. Traders appear to price in slight upward model revisions or station-specific variability (e.g., Retiro vs. airport readings), given the warm 2026 summer baseline and minimal cooling signals in short-range guidance. Key resolution hinges on the exact daily maximum at the primary observing site; further model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours will refine the distribution between the 37–39°C cluster.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 7 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 7 de agosto?
38°C 47%
39°C 29%
37°C 16%
40°C 9%
NOVO
NOVO
7 ago 2026
35°C or below
1%
36°C
3%
37°C
16%
38°C
47%
39°C
29%
40°C
9%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
38°C 47%
39°C 29%
37°C 16%
40°C 9%
NOVO
NOVO
7 ago 2026
35°C or below
$20 Vol.
1%
36°C
$37 Vol.
3%
37°C
$442 Vol.
16%
38°C
$332 Vol.
47%
39°C
$187 Vol.
29%
40°C
$111 Vol.
9%
41°C
$136 Vol.
2%
42°C
$67 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$21 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$36 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$397 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 38°C (46.5%) or 39°C (29%) for Madrid on August 7, with 37°C at 16.5%.** Official AEMET guidance and ensemble consensus currently point to a maximum near 37°C under clear skies and light southerly flow, consistent with a persistent subtropical ridge and warm advection from North Africa. Traders appear to price in slight upward model revisions or station-specific variability (e.g., Retiro vs. airport readings), given the warm 2026 summer baseline and minimal cooling signals in short-range guidance. Key resolution hinges on the exact daily maximum at the primary observing site; further model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours will refine the distribution between the 37–39°C cluster.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,784Data de Término
7 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 38°C (46.5%) or 39°C (29%) for Madrid on August 7, with 37°C at 16.5%.** Official AEMET guidance and ensemble consensus currently point to a maximum near 37°C under clear skies and light southerly flow, consistent with a persistent subtropical ridge and warm advection from North Africa. Traders appear to price in slight upward model revisions or station-specific variability (e.g., Retiro vs. airport readings), given the warm 2026 summer baseline and minimal cooling signals in short-range guidance. Key resolution hinges on the exact daily maximum at the primary observing site; further model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours will refine the distribution between the 37–39°C cluster.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,784Data de Término
7 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 38°C (46.5%) or 39°C (29%) for Madrid on August 7, with 37°C at 16.5%.** Official AEMET guidance and ensemble consensus currently point to a maximum near 37°C under clear skies and light southerly flow, consistent with a persistent subtropical ridge and warm advection from North Africa. Traders appear to price in slight upward model revisions or station-specific variability (e.g., Retiro vs. airport readings), given the warm 2026 summer baseline and minimal cooling signals in short-range guidance. Key resolution hinges on the exact daily maximum at the primary observing site; further model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours will refine the distribution between the 37–39°C cluster.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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