Latest National Weather Service extended forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means project a high near 55°F at LaGuardia Airport on April 6, reflecting trader sentiment clustered around the 54-57°F bins amid genuine uncertainty differentiating these close outcomes. An approaching upper-level trough and associated cold frontal boundary will introduce cooler mid-level air and increasing cloud cover over NYC, capping daytime heating after recent warmer anomalies; subtle model disagreements on the exact timing of cloud onset and boundary-layer mixing heights account for the 1-2°F spread, with some runs showing slightly sunnier breaks favoring 56-57°F. Historical early-April highs at KLGA average mid-50s°F, aligning with this consensus. Watch for overnight GFS/ECMWF updates and the morning NWS forecast discussion, which could refine probabilities as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on April 6?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 6?
54-55°F 27%
56-57°F 24%
58-59°F 17%
52-53°F 16%
47°F or below
1%
48-49°F
2%
50-51°F
9%
52-53°F
16%
54-55°F
27%
56-57°F
24%
58-59°F
17%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
5%
64-65°F
3%
66°F or higher
2%
54-55°F 27%
56-57°F 24%
58-59°F 17%
52-53°F 16%
47°F or below
1%
48-49°F
2%
50-51°F
9%
52-53°F
16%
54-55°F
27%
56-57°F
24%
58-59°F
17%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
5%
64-65°F
3%
66°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service extended forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means project a high near 55°F at LaGuardia Airport on April 6, reflecting trader sentiment clustered around the 54-57°F bins amid genuine uncertainty differentiating these close outcomes. An approaching upper-level trough and associated cold frontal boundary will introduce cooler mid-level air and increasing cloud cover over NYC, capping daytime heating after recent warmer anomalies; subtle model disagreements on the exact timing of cloud onset and boundary-layer mixing heights account for the 1-2°F spread, with some runs showing slightly sunnier breaks favoring 56-57°F. Historical early-April highs at KLGA average mid-50s°F, aligning with this consensus. Watch for overnight GFS/ECMWF updates and the morning NWS forecast discussion, which could refine probabilities as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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