Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and China Meteorological Administration models, which converge on Shanghai's highest temperature near 19-20°C on April 13, explaining the tight clustering of probabilities around 20°C or higher (30.5%), 18°C (22.5%), 17°C (20.6%), and 19°C (18.5%). This positioning stems from recent post-frontal cooling after early April highs reached 22°C, with current uncertainty arising from model disagreements on cloud cover thickness and potential light showers amid weak southerly flow and moderate humidity. Historical April averages of 19°C provide baseline context, while inherent short-range forecast variability—due to mesoscale atmospheric dynamics—keeps lower outcomes viable. Fresh model runs every 6-12 hours and April 12 observations will likely refine odds ahead of resolution via official Shanghai station data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 13?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 13?
20°C or higher 31%
18°C 23%
17°C 20.4%
19°C 19%
$36,047 Vol.
$36,047 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
11%
17°C
20%
18°C
23%
19°C
19%
20°C or higher
31%
20°C or higher 31%
18°C 23%
17°C 20.4%
19°C 19%
$36,047 Vol.
$36,047 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
11%
17°C
20%
18°C
23%
19°C
19%
20°C or higher
31%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 9, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and China Meteorological Administration models, which converge on Shanghai's highest temperature near 19-20°C on April 13, explaining the tight clustering of probabilities around 20°C or higher (30.5%), 18°C (22.5%), 17°C (20.6%), and 19°C (18.5%). This positioning stems from recent post-frontal cooling after early April highs reached 22°C, with current uncertainty arising from model disagreements on cloud cover thickness and potential light showers amid weak southerly flow and moderate humidity. Historical April averages of 19°C provide baseline context, while inherent short-range forecast variability—due to mesoscale atmospheric dynamics—keeps lower outcomes viable. Fresh model runs every 6-12 hours and April 12 observations will likely refine odds ahead of resolution via official Shanghai station data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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