**Trader sentiment for Wellington's September 3 minimum temperature reflects substantial uncertainty around a typical early-spring range, with market-implied odds split nearly evenly between cooler outcomes (8°C or below at 45.5%) and warmer ones (18°C or higher at 45.5%), alongside mid-range probabilities clustered near 11–14°C.** Forecasts from sources such as Met Office, Yr.no, and WeatherBug indicate a daily minimum near 12–13°C under northwesterly winds of 20–30 mph (roughly 10–15 m/s), with daytime highs around 14–15°C and patchy rain possible. These conditions align with historical September averages of roughly 9–12°C overnight lows, driven by the city's exposed coastal setting on New Zealand's North Island. Key differentiating factors include cloud cover and wind-driven mixing: clear skies overnight promote stronger longwave radiative cooling and lower minima, while persistent strong winds and increased humidity from approaching systems limit temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing in the boundary layer. Variable frontal activity or rainfall timing could also shift the exact minimum by several degrees. With resolution imminent on September 3, updated model runs and real-time observations from agencies like MetService will likely refine these probabilities quickly.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Wellington em 3 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Wellington em 3 de setembro?
18°C ou mais 93%
8°C ou menos 91%
10°C 49%
13°C 27%
NOVO
NOVO
3 set 2026
8°C ou menos
91%
9°C
3%
10°C
49%
11°C
26%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
27%
15°C
8%
16°C
3%
17°C
2%
18°C ou mais
93%
18°C ou mais 93%
8°C ou menos 91%
10°C 49%
13°C 27%
NOVO
NOVO
3 set 2026
8°C ou menos
$5 Vol.
91%
9°C
$5 Vol.
3%
10°C
$5 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$5 Vol.
8%
16°C
$5 Vol.
3%
17°C
$5 Vol.
2%
18°C ou mais
$5 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington's September 3 minimum temperature reflects substantial uncertainty around a typical early-spring range, with market-implied odds split nearly evenly between cooler outcomes (8°C or below at 45.5%) and warmer ones (18°C or higher at 45.5%), alongside mid-range probabilities clustered near 11–14°C.**
Forecasts from sources such as Met Office, Yr.no, and WeatherBug indicate a daily minimum near 12–13°C under northwesterly winds of 20–30 mph (roughly 10–15 m/s), with daytime highs around 14–15°C and patchy rain possible. These conditions align with historical September averages of roughly 9–12°C overnight lows, driven by the city's exposed coastal setting on New Zealand's North Island.
Key differentiating factors include cloud cover and wind-driven mixing: clear skies overnight promote stronger longwave radiative cooling and lower minima, while persistent strong winds and increased humidity from approaching systems limit temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing in the boundary layer. Variable frontal activity or rainfall timing could also shift the exact minimum by several degrees. With resolution imminent on September 3, updated model runs and real-time observations from agencies like MetService will likely refine these probabilities quickly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$35Data de Término
3 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington's September 3 minimum temperature reflects substantial uncertainty around a typical early-spring range, with market-implied odds split nearly evenly between cooler outcomes (8°C or below at 45.5%) and warmer ones (18°C or higher at 45.5%), alongside mid-range probabilities clustered near 11–14°C.**
Forecasts from sources such as Met Office, Yr.no, and WeatherBug indicate a daily minimum near 12–13°C under northwesterly winds of 20–30 mph (roughly 10–15 m/s), with daytime highs around 14–15°C and patchy rain possible. These conditions align with historical September averages of roughly 9–12°C overnight lows, driven by the city's exposed coastal setting on New Zealand's North Island.
Key differentiating factors include cloud cover and wind-driven mixing: clear skies overnight promote stronger longwave radiative cooling and lower minima, while persistent strong winds and increased humidity from approaching systems limit temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing in the boundary layer. Variable frontal activity or rainfall timing could also shift the exact minimum by several degrees. With resolution imminent on September 3, updated model runs and real-time observations from agencies like MetService will likely refine these probabilities quickly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$35Data de Término
3 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Wellington's September 3 minimum temperature reflects substantial uncertainty around a typical early-spring range, with market-implied odds split nearly evenly between cooler outcomes (8°C or below at 45.5%) and warmer ones (18°C or higher at 45.5%), alongside mid-range probabilities clustered near 11–14°C.** Forecasts from sources such as Met Office, Yr.no, and WeatherBug indicate a daily minimum near 12–13°C under northwesterly winds of 20–30 mph (roughly 10–15 m/s), with daytime highs around 14–15°C and patchy rain possible. These conditions align with historical September averages of roughly 9–12°C overnight lows, driven by the city's exposed coastal setting on New Zealand's North Island. Key differentiating factors include cloud cover and wind-driven mixing: clear skies overnight promote stronger longwave radiative cooling and lower minima, while persistent strong winds and increased humidity from approaching systems limit temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing in the boundary layer. Variable frontal activity or rainfall timing could also shift the exact minimum by several degrees. With resolution imminent on September 3, updated model runs and real-time observations from agencies like MetService will likely refine these probabilities quickly.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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