Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to consistent polling margins of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who won a contested August 4 primary. Virginia's recent federal voting patterns, Warner's long tenure since 2009, and the absence of major competitive pressure support trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat. Late developments that could narrow the gap include national political realignments before November, candidate health issues, or significant campaign finance shifts, though current evidence shows limited movement in these areas.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$16,798 Vol.
$16,798 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrata
95%
Republicano
5%
$16,798 Vol.
$16,798 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrata
$10,075 Vol.
95%
Republicano
$6,723 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to consistent polling margins of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who won a contested August 4 primary. Virginia's recent federal voting patterns, Warner's long tenure since 2009, and the absence of major competitive pressure support trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat. Late developments that could narrow the gap include national political realignments before November, candidate health issues, or significant campaign finance shifts, though current evidence shows limited movement in these areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$16,798Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to consistent polling margins of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who won a contested August 4 primary. Virginia's recent federal voting patterns, Warner's long tenure since 2009, and the absence of major competitive pressure support trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat. Late developments that could narrow the gap include national political realignments before November, candidate health issues, or significant campaign finance shifts, though current evidence shows limited movement in these areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$16,798Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to consistent polling margins of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who won a contested August 4 primary. Virginia's recent federal voting patterns, Warner's long tenure since 2009, and the absence of major competitive pressure support trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat. Late developments that could narrow the gap include national political realignments before November, candidate health issues, or significant campaign finance shifts, though current evidence shows limited movement in these areas.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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