Ongoing US-Iran tensions center on airstrikes, naval blockade enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions reimposition following the breakdown of the June 2026 Memorandum of Understanding, yet US operations have emphasized air campaigns, proxy targeting, and economic measures over ground forces. Recent developments through August 2026, including retaliatory strikes and renewed diplomatic overtures via Oman, show both sides managing escalation thresholds while avoiding large-scale troop commitments. Military analyses highlight the extraordinary logistical, troop, and political barriers to a mainland invasion, with any potential operations limited to offshore sites or special forces raids. Traders price the near-term "No" outcome at 83.5% because these patterns align with historical US restraint in direct occupation scenarios and the absence of mobilization signals for a full-scale operation before year-end.