**Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat ahead of the November 2026 general election.** Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces limited primary opposition from Anthony Valerio, while multiple Democratic candidates are competing in their August 18 primary. The district's partisan lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024, underpins trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican nominee. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns in this Jacksonville-area district. Bean holds a substantial fundraising edge and incumbency advantages typical for members seeking re-election in such terrain. Democratic primary contenders, including Michael Kirwan, show lower cash reserves and face structural headwinds in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Republicans. No major scandals, redistricting changes, or polling shifts have emerged in recent weeks to alter this positioning. The upcoming August primaries and general election timeline leave room for late developments, but current consensus aligns with the district's established Republican tilt and the incumbent's established position.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей FL-04
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей FL-04
$11,912 Объем
$11,912 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
78%
Демократическая партия
19%
$11,912 Объем
$11,912 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$6,745 Объем
78%
Демократическая партия
$5,167 Объем
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat ahead of the November 2026 general election.** Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces limited primary opposition from Anthony Valerio, while multiple Democratic candidates are competing in their August 18 primary. The district's partisan lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024, underpins trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican nominee.
Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns in this Jacksonville-area district. Bean holds a substantial fundraising edge and incumbency advantages typical for members seeking re-election in such terrain. Democratic primary contenders, including Michael Kirwan, show lower cash reserves and face structural headwinds in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Republicans.
No major scandals, redistricting changes, or polling shifts have emerged in recent weeks to alter this positioning. The upcoming August primaries and general election timeline leave room for late developments, but current consensus aligns with the district's established Republican tilt and the incumbent's established position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Объем
$11,912Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat ahead of the November 2026 general election.** Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces limited primary opposition from Anthony Valerio, while multiple Democratic candidates are competing in their August 18 primary. The district's partisan lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024, underpins trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican nominee.
Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns in this Jacksonville-area district. Bean holds a substantial fundraising edge and incumbency advantages typical for members seeking re-election in such terrain. Democratic primary contenders, including Michael Kirwan, show lower cash reserves and face structural headwinds in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Republicans.
No major scandals, redistricting changes, or polling shifts have emerged in recent weeks to alter this positioning. The upcoming August primaries and general election timeline leave room for late developments, but current consensus aligns with the district's established Republican tilt and the incumbent's established position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$11,912Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat ahead of the November 2026 general election.** Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces limited primary opposition from Anthony Valerio, while multiple Democratic candidates are competing in their August 18 primary. The district's partisan lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024, underpins trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican nominee. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns in this Jacksonville-area district. Bean holds a substantial fundraising edge and incumbency advantages typical for members seeking re-election in such terrain. Democratic primary contenders, including Michael Kirwan, show lower cash reserves and face structural headwinds in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Republicans. No major scandals, redistricting changes, or polling shifts have emerged in recent weeks to alter this positioning. The upcoming August primaries and general election timeline leave room for late developments, but current consensus aligns with the district's established Republican tilt and the incumbent's established position.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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