Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 12°C as Ankara's highest temperature on March 23, with 29% implied probability, edging out 11°C at 23% and 13°C at 17%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering daytime maxima around 11-13°C under a cool continental air mass influenced by a weak high-pressure ridge. Key differentiators include ECMWF's warmer bias from potential downslope föhn effects off the Anatolian plateau, versus GFS's cooler outlook due to lingering stratiform clouds and light northerlies suppressing insolation; historical March 23 highs average 12.4°C with a ±2.5°C standard deviation in analogous setups. Traders eye 00Z model runs for resolution refinement amid typical late-winter variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
12°C 29%
11°C 23%
13°C 17%
10°C 13%
4°C or below
1%
5°C
2%
6°C
5%
7°C
5%
8°C
8%
9°C
12%
10°C
13%
11°C
23%
12°C
29%
13°C
17%
14°C or higher
11%
12°C 29%
11°C 23%
13°C 17%
10°C 13%
4°C or below
1%
5°C
2%
6°C
5%
7°C
5%
8°C
8%
9°C
12%
10°C
13%
11°C
23%
12°C
29%
13°C
17%
14°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 12°C as Ankara's highest temperature on March 23, with 29% implied probability, edging out 11°C at 23% and 13°C at 17%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering daytime maxima around 11-13°C under a cool continental air mass influenced by a weak high-pressure ridge. Key differentiators include ECMWF's warmer bias from potential downslope föhn effects off the Anatolian plateau, versus GFS's cooler outlook due to lingering stratiform clouds and light northerlies suppressing insolation; historical March 23 highs average 12.4°C with a ±2.5°C standard deviation in analogous setups. Traders eye 00Z model runs for resolution refinement amid typical late-winter variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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