Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 40% probability for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 21°C or higher on March 29, reflecting the latest forecast guidance from major models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which project daytime highs of 20-22°C amid a high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and warm air advection from the south. Chengdu's March climatology averages 17-19°C highs, but recent upper-level warming and minimal cloud cover have elevated anomalies by 2-4°C, as seen in 24-hour forecast updates. Lower outcomes like 20°C (25%) and 19°C (23%) capture model spread from possible afternoon convective activity or light winds limiting peaks. Official measurements from the China Meteorological Administration's Chengdu station will resolve the market, with intraday observations providing final clarity.