Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering for Miami's highest temperature on March 29, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles projecting peaks of 76-81°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. The 78-79°F bin leads at 31.5% implied probability due to the multi-model mean hovering near 79°F, influenced by warm sea surface temperatures around 78°F in Biscayne Bay and limited cold air advection from a dissipating frontal boundary. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow favors cooler 76-77°F (25.5%), while delayed mixing supports 80-81°F (22.5%)—plus potential afternoon cumulus clouds capping highs. Historical late-March averages sit at 79°F; watch 00Z model runs tonight for refinements ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Miami on March 29?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 29?
78-79°F 31%
76-77°F 27%
80-81°F 21%
82-83°F 11%
71°F or below
4%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
31%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 31%
76-77°F 27%
80-81°F 21%
82-83°F 11%
71°F or below
4%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
31%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering for Miami's highest temperature on March 29, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles projecting peaks of 76-81°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. The 78-79°F bin leads at 31.5% implied probability due to the multi-model mean hovering near 79°F, influenced by warm sea surface temperatures around 78°F in Biscayne Bay and limited cold air advection from a dissipating frontal boundary. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow favors cooler 76-77°F (25.5%), while delayed mixing supports 80-81°F (22.5%)—plus potential afternoon cumulus clouds capping highs. Historical late-March averages sit at 79°F; watch 00Z model runs tonight for refinements ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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