Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather model forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29, with ECMWF and GFS runs clustering around 12–15°C as of the latest 12Z updates, driving the near-even odds for 13°C (26%) and 14°C (25%). A persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe has brought mild southwest winds and above-normal temperatures—Warsaw's March climatological average high is about 9°C—but variable cloud cover and potential diurnal instability introduce a 2–3°C spread in model outputs. Recent soundings show stable boundary layers limiting convective heating, while upcoming 00Z model refreshes from NOAA and ECMWF could refine land surface temperature projections, potentially tipping sentiment toward slight warming if southerly flow strengthens.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?
13°C 31%
14°C 25%
12°C 18%
15°C 13%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
6%
9°C
6%
10°C
8%
11°C
11%
12°C
19%
13°C
26%
14°C
25%
15°C
13%
16°C
11%
17°C or higher
11%
13°C 31%
14°C 25%
12°C 18%
15°C 13%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
6%
9°C
6%
10°C
8%
11°C
11%
12°C
19%
13°C
26%
14°C
25%
15°C
13%
16°C
11%
17°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather model forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29, with ECMWF and GFS runs clustering around 12–15°C as of the latest 12Z updates, driving the near-even odds for 13°C (26%) and 14°C (25%). A persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe has brought mild southwest winds and above-normal temperatures—Warsaw's March climatological average high is about 9°C—but variable cloud cover and potential diurnal instability introduce a 2–3°C spread in model outputs. Recent soundings show stable boundary layers limiting convective heating, while upcoming 00Z model refreshes from NOAA and ECMWF could refine land surface temperature projections, potentially tipping sentiment toward slight warming if southerly flow strengthens.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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