Trader consensus strongly favors 17°C (45%) as Shanghai's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting mild spring conditions with peaks in the 16-18°C range. Southerly winds carrying warmer air from the East China Sea, combined with Shanghai's urban heat island effect amplifying nighttime lows into daytime highs, position these outcomes as frontrunners against historical late-March averages of 15-17°C. Recent observations from March 24-25 show highs of 16-18°C under stable high-pressure ridging, reducing odds for extremes; minimal risk of cold snaps or heatwaves per current jet stream patterns keeps 22°C+ at just 0.3%. Hourly updates from the China Meteorological Administration could refine these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
17°C 45%
18°C 24%
16°C 18%
19°C 9%
$53,777 Объем
$53,777 Объем
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
3%
16°C
18%
17°C
45%
18°C
24%
19°C
9%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 45%
18°C 24%
16°C 18%
19°C 9%
$53,777 Объем
$53,777 Объем
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
3%
16°C
18%
17°C
45%
18°C
24%
19°C
9%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:18 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors 17°C (45%) as Shanghai's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting mild spring conditions with peaks in the 16-18°C range. Southerly winds carrying warmer air from the East China Sea, combined with Shanghai's urban heat island effect amplifying nighttime lows into daytime highs, position these outcomes as frontrunners against historical late-March averages of 15-17°C. Recent observations from March 24-25 show highs of 16-18°C under stable high-pressure ridging, reducing odds for extremes; minimal risk of cold snaps or heatwaves per current jet stream patterns keeps 22°C+ at just 0.3%. Hourly updates from the China Meteorological Administration could refine these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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