Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Wuhan's highest temperature on March 29, with model ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) converging on 21–23°C highs, slightly favoring 22°C amid recent spring warming trends. Observations over the past week show daily highs stabilizing around 20–22°C following a mild frontal passage, influenced by southerly flows and above-normal seasonal temperatures for late March in central China, where historical averages hover near 16–18°C. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon cloud cover suppressing peaks below 22°C or clearer skies allowing 23–24°C; urban heat island effects in Wuhan add 1–2°C variability. Updated forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration expected within 24 hours could refine this narrow range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 29?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 29?
22°C 23%
21°C 21%
23°C 20%
24°C 20%
18°C or below
2%
19°C
11%
20°C
17%
21°C
21%
22°C
23%
23°C
20%
24°C
20%
25°C
14%
26°C
13%
27°C
11%
28°C or higher
2%
22°C 23%
21°C 21%
23°C 20%
24°C 20%
18°C or below
2%
19°C
11%
20°C
17%
21°C
21%
22°C
23%
23°C
20%
24°C
20%
25°C
14%
26°C
13%
27°C
11%
28°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Wuhan's highest temperature on March 29, with model ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) converging on 21–23°C highs, slightly favoring 22°C amid recent spring warming trends. Observations over the past week show daily highs stabilizing around 20–22°C following a mild frontal passage, influenced by southerly flows and above-normal seasonal temperatures for late March in central China, where historical averages hover near 16–18°C. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon cloud cover suppressing peaks below 22°C or clearer skies allowing 23–24°C; urban heat island effects in Wuhan add 1–2°C variability. Updated forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration expected within 24 hours could refine this narrow range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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