Trader sentiment favors a mild warm-up in Seoul on March 26, with 32% market-implied odds for 16°C or higher, driven by the latest Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and ECMWF forecasts projecting highs of 14-17°C under southerly winds displacing colder Siberian air masses. GFS ensembles show some spread, contributing to high uncertainty across outcomes, as a lingering cold front could cap peaks at 12-14°C (46.5% combined odds). Key variables include jet stream positioning for warm air advection, cloud cover limiting solar insolation, and Seoul's urban heat island effect boosting nighttime lows into diurnal highs. Historical March 26 averages hover near 11°C, but recent spring trends skew warmer, amplifying upside risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Seoul on March 26?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 26?
16°C or higher 32%
14°C 22%
15°C 18%
13°C 16%
$32,366 Объем
$32,366 Объем
6°C или ниже
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
9%
13°C
16%
14°C
22%
15°C
18%
16°C or higher
32%
16°C or higher 32%
14°C 22%
15°C 18%
13°C 16%
$32,366 Объем
$32,366 Объем
6°C или ниже
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
9%
13°C
16%
14°C
22%
15°C
18%
16°C or higher
32%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors a mild warm-up in Seoul on March 26, with 32% market-implied odds for 16°C or higher, driven by the latest Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and ECMWF forecasts projecting highs of 14-17°C under southerly winds displacing colder Siberian air masses. GFS ensembles show some spread, contributing to high uncertainty across outcomes, as a lingering cold front could cap peaks at 12-14°C (46.5% combined odds). Key variables include jet stream positioning for warm air advection, cloud cover limiting solar insolation, and Seoul's urban heat island effect boosting nighttime lows into diurnal highs. Historical March 26 averages hover near 11°C, but recent spring trends skew warmer, amplifying upside risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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