Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Istanbul's highest temperature reaching 17°C or higher on April 3, driven by the latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, alongside Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance projecting peaks of 17–18°C under mild southerly winds and partial clearing after morning showers. AccuWeather details a high of 18°C (65°F), while weather.com anticipates 16–17°C with hourly maxima nearing 61°F (16°C) by late afternoon, aligning with April climatological averages of 16°C amid typical spring diurnal heating. Current midday observations hover around 14°C following light precipitation, but model consensus expects sufficient insolation for the threshold. Realistic challenges include prolonged overcast skies or unexpected showers suppressing peaks to 16°C, though ensemble spreads remain narrow; monitor MGM hourly updates and Istanbul Airport station data for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?
17°C or higher 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$40,626 Объем
$40,626 Объем
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
Yes
17°C or higher 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$40,626 Объем
$40,626 Объем
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Istanbul's highest temperature reaching 17°C or higher on April 3, driven by the latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, alongside Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance projecting peaks of 17–18°C under mild southerly winds and partial clearing after morning showers. AccuWeather details a high of 18°C (65°F), while weather.com anticipates 16–17°C with hourly maxima nearing 61°F (16°C) by late afternoon, aligning with April climatological averages of 16°C amid typical spring diurnal heating. Current midday observations hover around 14°C following light precipitation, but model consensus expects sufficient insolation for the threshold. Realistic challenges include prolonged overcast skies or unexpected showers suppressing peaks to 16°C, though ensemble spreads remain narrow; monitor MGM hourly updates and Istanbul Airport station data for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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