Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 11°C or 12°C for Paris on March 28, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering tightly around these values amid a mild westerly flow from the Atlantic. Recent model runs show ECMWF peaking at 11°C with partial cloud cover limiting diurnal heating, while GFS edges toward 12°C under slightly clearer skies, explaining the razor-thin 23.5% vs. 23.0% odds. Cooler 9-10°C outcomes gain traction if low-pressure systems thicken clouds, per Météo-France outlooks, while 13°C+ requires unexpected solar insolation boosts—historical March 28 averages hover near 12°C, underscoring the slim margins in boundary layer thermodynamics and short-range predictability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Paris on March 28?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 28?
12°C 23%
11°C 22%
10°C 19%
13°C 19%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
14%
9°C
18%
10°C
19%
11°C
22%
12°C
23%
13°C
19%
14°C
9%
15°C
6%
16°C
11%
17°C or higher
2%
12°C 23%
11°C 22%
10°C 19%
13°C 19%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
14%
9°C
18%
10°C
19%
11°C
22%
12°C
23%
13°C
19%
14°C
9%
15°C
6%
16°C
11%
17°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 11°C or 12°C for Paris on March 28, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering tightly around these values amid a mild westerly flow from the Atlantic. Recent model runs show ECMWF peaking at 11°C with partial cloud cover limiting diurnal heating, while GFS edges toward 12°C under slightly clearer skies, explaining the razor-thin 23.5% vs. 23.0% odds. Cooler 9-10°C outcomes gain traction if low-pressure systems thicken clouds, per Météo-France outlooks, while 13°C+ requires unexpected solar insolation boosts—historical March 28 averages hover near 12°C, underscoring the slim margins in boundary layer thermodynamics and short-range predictability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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