Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering of maximum temperatures around 15-16°C for Warsaw on April 16, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes with implied probabilities of 28-29%. This reflects mild southerly air advection under a developing upper-level ridge, tempered by partial cloud cover and light northwest winds that limit boundary layer heating and solar insolation. Model spread arises from uncertainties in diurnal cloud timing and frontal remnants, with historical mid-April averages near 14°C providing baseline context amid spring warming trends. Official resolution uses Warsaw Chopin Airport observations from IMGW; watch for 00Z model updates overnight that could refine consensus before peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 16?
16°C 35%
14°C 17%
15°C 17%
17°C 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 апр. 2026 г.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
6%
14°C
17%
15°C
22%
16°C
35%
17°C
13%
18°C
8%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
1%
16°C 35%
14°C 17%
15°C 17%
17°C 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 апр. 2026 г.
10°C or below
$250 Объем
<1%
11°C
$275 Объем
1%
12°C
$86 Объем
4%
13°C
$86 Объем
6%
14°C
$206 Объем
17%
15°C
$335 Объем
22%
16°C
$146 Объем
35%
17°C
$141 Объем
13%
18°C
$79 Объем
8%
19°C
$99 Объем
3%
20°C or higher
$215 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering of maximum temperatures around 15-16°C for Warsaw on April 16, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes with implied probabilities of 28-29%. This reflects mild southerly air advection under a developing upper-level ridge, tempered by partial cloud cover and light northwest winds that limit boundary layer heating and solar insolation. Model spread arises from uncertainties in diurnal cloud timing and frontal remnants, with historical mid-April averages near 14°C providing baseline context amid spring warming trends. Official resolution uses Warsaw Chopin Airport observations from IMGW; watch for 00Z model updates overnight that could refine consensus before peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 14, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Объем
$1,765Дата окончания
16 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 6:14 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering of maximum temperatures around 15-16°C for Warsaw on April 16, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes with implied probabilities of 28-29%. This reflects mild southerly air advection under a developing upper-level ridge, tempered by partial cloud cover and light northwest winds that limit boundary layer heating and solar insolation. Model spread arises from uncertainties in diurnal cloud timing and frontal remnants, with historical mid-April averages near 14°C providing baseline context amid spring warming trends. Official resolution uses Warsaw Chopin Airport observations from IMGW; watch for 00Z model updates overnight that could refine consensus before peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$1,765Дата окончания
16 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 6:14 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering of maximum temperatures around 15-16°C for Warsaw on April 16, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes with implied probabilities of 28-29%. This reflects mild southerly air advection under a developing upper-level ridge, tempered by partial cloud cover and light northwest winds that limit boundary layer heating and solar insolation. Model spread arises from uncertainties in diurnal cloud timing and frontal remnants, with historical mid-April averages near 14°C providing baseline context amid spring warming trends. Official resolution uses Warsaw Chopin Airport observations from IMGW; watch for 00Z model updates overnight that could refine consensus before peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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