Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.6% implied probability on fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January 2026's record-low 150 transits—down over 80% from pre-crisis norms—amid renewed threats in February and March, with monthly container volumes hovering around 200 despite tentative return experiments. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores structural avoidance of the route, with total Q1 likely under 600 based on Suez Canal Authority trends. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire spurring a late-quarter surge or data revisions, though barriers to 1,000+ remain formidable absent geopolitical resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiQ1 2026 'da Süveyş Kanalı'nın 1k+ konteyner gemisi geçişleri?
Q1 2026 'da Süveyş Kanalı'nın 1k+ konteyner gemisi geçişleri?
$57,044 Hac.
$57,044 Hac.
31 Mar 2026
$57,044 Hac.
$57,044 Hac.
31 Mar 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.6% implied probability on fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January 2026's record-low 150 transits—down over 80% from pre-crisis norms—amid renewed threats in February and March, with monthly container volumes hovering around 200 despite tentative return experiments. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores structural avoidance of the route, with total Q1 likely under 600 based on Suez Canal Authority trends. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire spurring a late-quarter surge or data revisions, though barriers to 1,000+ remain formidable absent geopolitical resolution.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
Hacim
$57,044Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.6% implied probability on fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January 2026's record-low 150 transits—down over 80% from pre-crisis norms—amid renewed threats in February and March, with monthly container volumes hovering around 200 despite tentative return experiments. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores structural avoidance of the route, with total Q1 likely under 600 based on Suez Canal Authority trends. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire spurring a late-quarter surge or data revisions, though barriers to 1,000+ remain formidable absent geopolitical resolution.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Hacim
$57,044Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.6% implied probability on fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January 2026's record-low 150 transits—down over 80% from pre-crisis norms—amid renewed threats in February and March, with monthly container volumes hovering around 200 despite tentative return experiments. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores structural avoidance of the route, with total Q1 likely under 600 based on Suez Canal Authority trends. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire spurring a late-quarter surge or data revisions, though barriers to 1,000+ remain formidable absent geopolitical resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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