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2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

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2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

May 10

May 10

3rd hottest 67%

2nd hottest 16%

4th or lower 14%

1st hottest 4.9%

Polymarket

$70,543 Hac.

3rd hottest 67%

2nd hottest 16%

4th or lower 14%

1st hottest 4.9%

Polymarket

$70,543 Hac.

1st hottest

$7,350 Hac.

5%

2nd hottest

$21,052 Hac.

16%

3rd hottest

$14,434 Hac.

67%

4th or lower

$27,708 Hac.

14%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 reveal global surface air temperatures elevated above the 1991-2020 average, placing the month on track for third-hottest April on record behind 2024's record and 2025's second-place finish, aligning with trader consensus at 66.5% implied probability for this outcome. Persistent near-record sea surface temperatures exceeding 21°C, carrying over from March's fourth-warmest ranking (Copernicus), amplify warming amid anthropogenic climate trends, though ENSO-neutral conditions—favored by NOAA through June (80% chance)—temper extremes compared to prior El Niño-influenced peaks. La Niña uncertainty noted in recent forecasts contributes to modest odds for second-hottest (16%) or first (5%), with 13.5% for fourth or lower. Watch for Copernicus and NOAA full-month bulletins in early May.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Hacim
$70,543
Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 reveal global surface air temperatures elevated above the 1991-2020 average, placing the month on track for third-hottest April on record behind 2024's record and 2025's second-place finish, aligning with trader consensus at 66.5% implied probability for this outcome. Persistent near-record sea surface temperatures exceeding 21°C, carrying over from March's fourth-warmest ranking (Copernicus), amplify warming amid anthropogenic climate trends, though ENSO-neutral conditions—favored by NOAA through June (80% chance)—temper extremes compared to prior El Niño-influenced peaks. La Niña uncertainty noted in recent forecasts contributes to modest odds for second-hottest (16%) or first (5%), with 13.5% for fourth or lower. Watch for Copernicus and NOAA full-month bulletins in early May.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Hacim
$70,543
Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 4 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 67% ile "3rd hottest", ardından 16% ile "2nd hottest" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 67¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 67% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" toplam $70.5K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Mar 24, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 4 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" için mevcut favori 67% ile "3rd hottest"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 67% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 16% ile "2nd hottest"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.