Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil Selic rate decrease at the upcoming April Copom meeting, following the committee's cautious 25 basis point cut to 14.75% in March—the first easing move since May 2024 amid a disinflation trajectory. This positioning reflects Copom's forward guidance emphasizing inflation convergence to the 3% target despite March IPCA accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on transient fuel shocks from Middle East tensions, with Focus survey expectations holding steady for end-2026 Selic around 12.4%. Labor market softening (unemployment at 5.8%) and moderating GDP growth further bolster easing bets. Realistic challenges include sustained oil price surges or hotter-than-expected April data pushing no-change odds higher ahead of the late-April decision.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiAzalış 96.0%
Değişiklik Yok 3.5%
Artış <1%
$274,141 Hac.
$274,141 Hac.
28 Nis 2026
Artış
1%
Değişiklik Yok
3%
Azalış
96%
Azalış 96.0%
Değişiklik Yok 3.5%
Artış <1%
$274,141 Hac.
$274,141 Hac.
28 Nis 2026
Artış
$146,240 Hac.
1%
Değişiklik Yok
$62,665 Hac.
3%
Azalış
$65,236 Hac.
96%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil Selic rate decrease at the upcoming April Copom meeting, following the committee's cautious 25 basis point cut to 14.75% in March—the first easing move since May 2024 amid a disinflation trajectory. This positioning reflects Copom's forward guidance emphasizing inflation convergence to the 3% target despite March IPCA accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on transient fuel shocks from Middle East tensions, with Focus survey expectations holding steady for end-2026 Selic around 12.4%. Labor market softening (unemployment at 5.8%) and moderating GDP growth further bolster easing bets. Realistic challenges include sustained oil price surges or hotter-than-expected April data pushing no-change odds higher ahead of the late-April decision.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Hacim
$274,141Bitiş Tarihi
28 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil Selic rate decrease at the upcoming April Copom meeting, following the committee's cautious 25 basis point cut to 14.75% in March—the first easing move since May 2024 amid a disinflation trajectory. This positioning reflects Copom's forward guidance emphasizing inflation convergence to the 3% target despite March IPCA accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on transient fuel shocks from Middle East tensions, with Focus survey expectations holding steady for end-2026 Selic around 12.4%. Labor market softening (unemployment at 5.8%) and moderating GDP growth further bolster easing bets. Realistic challenges include sustained oil price surges or hotter-than-expected April data pushing no-change odds higher ahead of the late-April decision.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Hacim
$274,141Bitiş Tarihi
28 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil Selic rate decrease at the upcoming April Copom meeting, following the committee's cautious 25 basis point cut to 14.75% in March—the first easing move since May 2024 amid a disinflation trajectory. This positioning reflects Copom's forward guidance emphasizing inflation convergence to the 3% target despite March IPCA accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on transient fuel shocks from Middle East tensions, with Focus survey expectations holding steady for end-2026 Selic around 12.4%. Labor market softening (unemployment at 5.8%) and moderating GDP growth further bolster easing bets. Realistic challenges include sustained oil price surges or hotter-than-expected April data pushing no-change odds higher ahead of the late-April decision.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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