Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's current term runs through May 2028, with the next presidential election scheduled no earlier than then, as reaffirmed in his April 15 statement ruling out snap elections amid ongoing foreign policy focus on Iran ceasefire efforts and regional tensions. Despite recent polls showing opposition CHP candidates like Ekrem İmamoğlu or Mansur Yavaş leading hypothetical 2028 runoffs by 10–14 points against Erdoğan and AKP, traders assign an 89.5% implied probability to "No" due to the absence of domestic catalysts for early exit—such as no-confidence triggers, resignation signals, health crises, or constitutional challenges—leaving structural barriers intact absent unforeseen scandals or health events before year-end.