Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's firm rejection of early or snap elections on April 6 and 15, 2026, amid opposition calls from the CHP, anchors trader consensus at 89.5% odds against his departure by year-end, as the next presidential vote remains scheduled for May 2028 under the constitution. Despite unconfirmed health rumors from February and polls showing jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu leading hypothetical runoffs 55-45 in April surveys, Erdoğan has stayed active in diplomacy, welcoming the Iran ceasefire on April 8 and addressing Middle East tensions. Allies continue pushing constitutional amendments for term extension, but no verified catalysts like no-confidence votes, resignations, or major scandals have emerged in the past 30 days to signal an exit before 2027. Traders price in low near-term risks absent unforeseen health events or parliamentary shifts.