Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rate decisions across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 pause at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. The March CPI surged 0.9% monthly to 3.3% annually—highest since May 2024—driven by 12.5% energy inflation amid geopolitical tensions, tempering rate-cut expectations despite the dot plot's median projection for one 25-basis-point reduction later in 2026. Solid March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000) further bolstered labor market strength, positioning Pause-Pause-Cut at 8.5% as a distant alternative ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiDuraklat–Duraklat–Duraklat 89%
Duraklat–Duraklat–Faiz İndir 9%
Diğer 2.9%
Durakla–İndir–Durakla <1%
$905,589 Hac.
$905,589 Hac.
17 Haz 2026
Duraklat–Duraklat–Duraklat
89%
Duraklat–Duraklat–Faiz İndir
9%
Diğer
3%
Durakla–İndir–Durakla
1%
Sürdürecek–İndirecek–İndirecek
<1%
Duraklat–Duraklat–Duraklat 89%
Duraklat–Duraklat–Faiz İndir 9%
Diğer 2.9%
Durakla–İndir–Durakla <1%
$905,589 Hac.
$905,589 Hac.
17 Haz 2026
Duraklat–Duraklat–Duraklat
$31,189 Hac.
89%
Duraklat–Duraklat–Faiz İndir
$15,207 Hac.
9%
Diğer
$216,565 Hac.
3%
Durakla–İndir–Durakla
$132,529 Hac.
1%
Sürdürecek–İndirecek–İndirecek
$510,099 Hac.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rate decisions across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 pause at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. The March CPI surged 0.9% monthly to 3.3% annually—highest since May 2024—driven by 12.5% energy inflation amid geopolitical tensions, tempering rate-cut expectations despite the dot plot's median projection for one 25-basis-point reduction later in 2026. Solid March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000) further bolstered labor market strength, positioning Pause-Pause-Cut at 8.5% as a distant alternative ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Hacim
$905,589Bitiş Tarihi
17 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rate decisions across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 pause at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. The March CPI surged 0.9% monthly to 3.3% annually—highest since May 2024—driven by 12.5% energy inflation amid geopolitical tensions, tempering rate-cut expectations despite the dot plot's median projection for one 25-basis-point reduction later in 2026. Solid March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000) further bolstered labor market strength, positioning Pause-Pause-Cut at 8.5% as a distant alternative ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Hacim
$905,589Bitiş Tarihi
17 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rate decisions across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 pause at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. The March CPI surged 0.9% monthly to 3.3% annually—highest since May 2024—driven by 12.5% energy inflation amid geopolitical tensions, tempering rate-cut expectations despite the dot plot's median projection for one 25-basis-point reduction later in 2026. Solid March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000) further bolstered labor market strength, positioning Pause-Pause-Cut at 8.5% as a distant alternative ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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