Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the Fed's baseline stance of maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid contained core inflation pressures. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a geopolitical energy shock from the Iran conflict pushing monthly headline gains to 0.9%—yet officials in the latest FOMC minutes (released April 8) emphasized anchored long-term inflation expectations, with only modest openness to hikes if risks materialize. Labor markets added 178,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, holding unemployment at 4.3%, supporting steady policy. Key catalysts include the April 29-30 FOMC meeting and May 12 CPI release, where sustained core acceleration above 3% could elevate hike odds above the current 14.5% threshold.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$887,678 Hac.
$887,678 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
Evet
$887,678 Hac.
$887,678 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the Fed's baseline stance of maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid contained core inflation pressures. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a geopolitical energy shock from the Iran conflict pushing monthly headline gains to 0.9%—yet officials in the latest FOMC minutes (released April 8) emphasized anchored long-term inflation expectations, with only modest openness to hikes if risks materialize. Labor markets added 178,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, holding unemployment at 4.3%, supporting steady policy. Key catalysts include the April 29-30 FOMC meeting and May 12 CPI release, where sustained core acceleration above 3% could elevate hike odds above the current 14.5% threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Hacim
$887,678Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the Fed's baseline stance of maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid contained core inflation pressures. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a geopolitical energy shock from the Iran conflict pushing monthly headline gains to 0.9%—yet officials in the latest FOMC minutes (released April 8) emphasized anchored long-term inflation expectations, with only modest openness to hikes if risks materialize. Labor markets added 178,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, holding unemployment at 4.3%, supporting steady policy. Key catalysts include the April 29-30 FOMC meeting and May 12 CPI release, where sustained core acceleration above 3% could elevate hike odds above the current 14.5% threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$887,678Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the Fed's baseline stance of maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid contained core inflation pressures. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a geopolitical energy shock from the Iran conflict pushing monthly headline gains to 0.9%—yet officials in the latest FOMC minutes (released April 8) emphasized anchored long-term inflation expectations, with only modest openness to hikes if risks materialize. Labor markets added 178,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, holding unemployment at 4.3%, supporting steady policy. Key catalysts include the April 29-30 FOMC meeting and May 12 CPI release, where sustained core acceleration above 3% could elevate hike odds above the current 14.5% threshold.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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