Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% for a natural disaster in 2026—defined strictly as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US on the Saffir-Simpson scale, a 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake—reflecting the extreme rarity of these events amid no qualifying incidents through mid-April. USGS seismic data confirms multiple M7.0+ quakes globally in Q1 but none reaching 8.5+, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI 6 activity; NASA asteroid tracking shows no imminent 10kt+ threats. NOAA's National Hurricane Center notes Typhoon Sinlaku's Category 4 landfall in the Northern Marianas (a US territory) on April 14 lacked Cat 5 intensity or mainland impact. With Atlantic hurricane season opening June 1, model ensembles indicate low Cat 5 potential under La Niña conditions; watch USGS alerts and NOAA forecasts for shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da Doğal Afet mi?
2026 'da Doğal Afet mi?
Evet
$203,803 Hac.
$203,803 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$203,803 Hac.
$203,803 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% for a natural disaster in 2026—defined strictly as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US on the Saffir-Simpson scale, a 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake—reflecting the extreme rarity of these events amid no qualifying incidents through mid-April. USGS seismic data confirms multiple M7.0+ quakes globally in Q1 but none reaching 8.5+, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI 6 activity; NASA asteroid tracking shows no imminent 10kt+ threats. NOAA's National Hurricane Center notes Typhoon Sinlaku's Category 4 landfall in the Northern Marianas (a US territory) on April 14 lacked Cat 5 intensity or mainland impact. With Atlantic hurricane season opening June 1, model ensembles indicate low Cat 5 potential under La Niña conditions; watch USGS alerts and NOAA forecasts for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Hacim
$203,803Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% for a natural disaster in 2026—defined strictly as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US on the Saffir-Simpson scale, a 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake—reflecting the extreme rarity of these events amid no qualifying incidents through mid-April. USGS seismic data confirms multiple M7.0+ quakes globally in Q1 but none reaching 8.5+, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI 6 activity; NASA asteroid tracking shows no imminent 10kt+ threats. NOAA's National Hurricane Center notes Typhoon Sinlaku's Category 4 landfall in the Northern Marianas (a US territory) on April 14 lacked Cat 5 intensity or mainland impact. With Atlantic hurricane season opening June 1, model ensembles indicate low Cat 5 potential under La Niña conditions; watch USGS alerts and NOAA forecasts for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Hacim
$203,803Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% for a natural disaster in 2026—defined strictly as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US on the Saffir-Simpson scale, a 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake—reflecting the extreme rarity of these events amid no qualifying incidents through mid-April. USGS seismic data confirms multiple M7.0+ quakes globally in Q1 but none reaching 8.5+, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI 6 activity; NASA asteroid tracking shows no imminent 10kt+ threats. NOAA's National Hurricane Center notes Typhoon Sinlaku's Category 4 landfall in the Northern Marianas (a US territory) on April 14 lacked Cat 5 intensity or mainland impact. With Atlantic hurricane season opening June 1, model ensembles indicate low Cat 5 potential under La Niña conditions; watch USGS alerts and NOAA forecasts for shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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