Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts strongly toward no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (62.5% implied probability), propelled by early April reports of CFO Sarah Friar challenging CEO Sam Altman's Q4 timeline as overly aggressive, citing organizational hurdles, slowing revenue growth, and ballooning expenditures like a freshly inked $20 billion Cerebras chip commitment over three years. Despite a recent $122 billion funding round valuing the company at $852 billion—including retail investor participation—and hires like a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations, scrutiny over high cash burn ($19 billion on $25 billion projected 2026 revenue) and Altman's external ventures heighten doubts. Trillion-dollar cap outcomes linger below 10% amid competitive pressures from Anthropic and regulatory headwinds, with any S-1 filing now a pivotal near-term catalyst.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiOpenAI IPO Kapanış Piyasa Değeri
OpenAI IPO Kapanış Piyasa Değeri
31 Aralık 2026'ya kadar halka arz yok 63%
1,5T+ 8.4%
750B–1T 6.5%
1,25T–1,5T 6.0%
$1,579,907 Hac.
$1,579,907 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
<500B
5%
500–750B
4%
750B–1T
6%
1T–1.25T
3%
1,25T–1,5T
6%
1,5T+
8%
31 Aralık 2026'ya kadar halka arz yok
63%
31 Aralık 2026'ya kadar halka arz yok 63%
1,5T+ 8.4%
750B–1T 6.5%
1,25T–1,5T 6.0%
$1,579,907 Hac.
$1,579,907 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
<500B
$259,821 Hac.
5%
500–750B
$141,577 Hac.
4%
750B–1T
$134,985 Hac.
6%
1T–1.25T
$175,470 Hac.
3%
1,25T–1,5T
$489,789 Hac.
6%
1,5T+
$94,737 Hac.
8%
31 Aralık 2026'ya kadar halka arz yok
$283,533 Hac.
63%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts strongly toward no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (62.5% implied probability), propelled by early April reports of CFO Sarah Friar challenging CEO Sam Altman's Q4 timeline as overly aggressive, citing organizational hurdles, slowing revenue growth, and ballooning expenditures like a freshly inked $20 billion Cerebras chip commitment over three years. Despite a recent $122 billion funding round valuing the company at $852 billion—including retail investor participation—and hires like a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations, scrutiny over high cash burn ($19 billion on $25 billion projected 2026 revenue) and Altman's external ventures heighten doubts. Trillion-dollar cap outcomes linger below 10% amid competitive pressures from Anthropic and regulatory headwinds, with any S-1 filing now a pivotal near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Piyasa Açıldı: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Hacim
$1,579,907Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts strongly toward no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (62.5% implied probability), propelled by early April reports of CFO Sarah Friar challenging CEO Sam Altman's Q4 timeline as overly aggressive, citing organizational hurdles, slowing revenue growth, and ballooning expenditures like a freshly inked $20 billion Cerebras chip commitment over three years. Despite a recent $122 billion funding round valuing the company at $852 billion—including retail investor participation—and hires like a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations, scrutiny over high cash burn ($19 billion on $25 billion projected 2026 revenue) and Altman's external ventures heighten doubts. Trillion-dollar cap outcomes linger below 10% amid competitive pressures from Anthropic and regulatory headwinds, with any S-1 filing now a pivotal near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Hacim
$1,579,907Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts strongly toward no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (62.5% implied probability), propelled by early April reports of CFO Sarah Friar challenging CEO Sam Altman's Q4 timeline as overly aggressive, citing organizational hurdles, slowing revenue growth, and ballooning expenditures like a freshly inked $20 billion Cerebras chip commitment over three years. Despite a recent $122 billion funding round valuing the company at $852 billion—including retail investor participation—and hires like a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations, scrutiny over high cash burn ($19 billion on $25 billion projected 2026 revenue) and Altman's external ventures heighten doubts. Trillion-dollar cap outcomes linger below 10% amid competitive pressures from Anthropic and regulatory headwinds, with any S-1 filing now a pivotal near-term catalyst.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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