Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 30% implied probability against an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of 750B–1T market cap at 29%—reflecting internal tensions exposed last week between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar over an aggressive Q4 2026 listing timeline. Friar's concerns center on escalating compute commitments, projected at $121 billion for 2028, amid executive departures, product cancellations like Sora, and scrutiny of the firm's $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 31 $122 billion funding round, which drew $3 billion from retail investors. Key differentiators include OpenAI's enterprise revenue pivot (now 40% of total) and lead in large language models versus rivals like Anthropic, though high cash burn and organizational hurdles could delay public markets; watch Q2 earnings previews and regulatory filings for resolution catalysts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiNo IPO by December 31, 2027 30%
750B–1T 26%
1T–1.25T 14%
1.25T–1.5T 14%
$14,103 Hac.
$14,103 Hac.
31 Ara 2027
<500B
7%
500–750B
26%
750B–1T
26%
1T–1.25T
17%
1.25T–1.5T
14%
1.5T+
16%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
30%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 30%
750B–1T 26%
1T–1.25T 14%
1.25T–1.5T 14%
$14,103 Hac.
$14,103 Hac.
31 Ara 2027
<500B
$62 Hac.
7%
500–750B
$84 Hac.
26%
750B–1T
$90 Hac.
26%
1T–1.25T
$2,920 Hac.
17%
1.25T–1.5T
$123 Hac.
14%
1.5T+
$42 Hac.
16%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$10,783 Hac.
30%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 30% implied probability against an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of 750B–1T market cap at 29%—reflecting internal tensions exposed last week between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar over an aggressive Q4 2026 listing timeline. Friar's concerns center on escalating compute commitments, projected at $121 billion for 2028, amid executive departures, product cancellations like Sora, and scrutiny of the firm's $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 31 $122 billion funding round, which drew $3 billion from retail investors. Key differentiators include OpenAI's enterprise revenue pivot (now 40% of total) and lead in large language models versus rivals like Anthropic, though high cash burn and organizational hurdles could delay public markets; watch Q2 earnings previews and regulatory filings for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Hacim
$14,103Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 30% implied probability against an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of 750B–1T market cap at 29%—reflecting internal tensions exposed last week between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar over an aggressive Q4 2026 listing timeline. Friar's concerns center on escalating compute commitments, projected at $121 billion for 2028, amid executive departures, product cancellations like Sora, and scrutiny of the firm's $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 31 $122 billion funding round, which drew $3 billion from retail investors. Key differentiators include OpenAI's enterprise revenue pivot (now 40% of total) and lead in large language models versus rivals like Anthropic, though high cash burn and organizational hurdles could delay public markets; watch Q2 earnings previews and regulatory filings for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Hacim
$14,103Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 30% implied probability against an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of 750B–1T market cap at 29%—reflecting internal tensions exposed last week between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar over an aggressive Q4 2026 listing timeline. Friar's concerns center on escalating compute commitments, projected at $121 billion for 2028, amid executive departures, product cancellations like Sora, and scrutiny of the firm's $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 31 $122 billion funding round, which drew $3 billion from retail investors. Key differentiators include OpenAI's enterprise revenue pivot (now 40% of total) and lead in large language models versus rivals like Anthropic, though high cash burn and organizational hurdles could delay public markets; watch Q2 earnings previews and regulatory filings for resolution catalysts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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