Recent US-brokered direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, the first since 1993, have driven trader consensus toward a near-certain "No" outcome, with "No" implying 97.7% probability of no full US Embassy Beirut evacuation by April 30. These April 14-15 discussions emphasized implementing the November 2024 cessation of hostilities, signaling de-escalation after March's intense Israel-Hezbollah clashes and intercepted missiles near the embassy. A February 23 ordered departure already removed non-emergency personnel and families, but the embassy remains operational with limited emergency passport services amid a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory and suspended routine consular functions per the April 3 alert. Sudden escalations like renewed airstrikes, Hezbollah attacks, or Iranian proxy threats could still prompt a full evacuation announcement.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
$14,073 Hac.
$14,073 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
$14,073 Hac.
$14,073 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Recent US-brokered direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, the first since 1993, have driven trader consensus toward a near-certain "No" outcome, with "No" implying 97.7% probability of no full US Embassy Beirut evacuation by April 30. These April 14-15 discussions emphasized implementing the November 2024 cessation of hostilities, signaling de-escalation after March's intense Israel-Hezbollah clashes and intercepted missiles near the embassy. A February 23 ordered departure already removed non-emergency personnel and families, but the embassy remains operational with limited emergency passport services amid a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory and suspended routine consular functions per the April 3 alert. Sudden escalations like renewed airstrikes, Hezbollah attacks, or Iranian proxy threats could still prompt a full evacuation announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Hacim
$14,073Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Recent US-brokered direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, the first since 1993, have driven trader consensus toward a near-certain "No" outcome, with "No" implying 97.7% probability of no full US Embassy Beirut evacuation by April 30. These April 14-15 discussions emphasized implementing the November 2024 cessation of hostilities, signaling de-escalation after March's intense Israel-Hezbollah clashes and intercepted missiles near the embassy. A February 23 ordered departure already removed non-emergency personnel and families, but the embassy remains operational with limited emergency passport services amid a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory and suspended routine consular functions per the April 3 alert. Sudden escalations like renewed airstrikes, Hezbollah attacks, or Iranian proxy threats could still prompt a full evacuation announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Hacim
$14,073Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-brokered direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, the first since 1993, have driven trader consensus toward a near-certain "No" outcome, with "No" implying 97.7% probability of no full US Embassy Beirut evacuation by April 30. These April 14-15 discussions emphasized implementing the November 2024 cessation of hostilities, signaling de-escalation after March's intense Israel-Hezbollah clashes and intercepted missiles near the embassy. A February 23 ordered departure already removed non-emergency personnel and families, but the embassy remains operational with limited emergency passport services amid a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory and suspended routine consular functions per the April 3 alert. Sudden escalations like renewed airstrikes, Hezbollah attacks, or Iranian proxy threats could still prompt a full evacuation announcement.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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