Historic U.S.-mediated direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese envoys on April 14 in Washington marked the first such diplomatic engagement in decades, yielding agreement to continue negotiations on restoring the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, border demarcation, and security arrangements. Despite Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar's expressed desire for peace and normalization, Hezbollah's vehement rejection of the process—coupled with its ongoing attacks and dominant role in Lebanese politics—poses significant barriers to establishing full diplomatic relations by year-end 2026. Lebanon's internal instability and mutual ceasefire violations underscore trader consensus implying a 77% probability of no normalization, prioritizing Hezbollah disarmament as a prerequisite unmet to date.