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Siyaset·Trump

Fed Başkanı kim olacak?

Market icon
Siyaset·Trump

Fed Başkanı kim olacak?

Kevin Warsh 93.8%

Michelle Bowman 1.6%

Judy Shelton 1.5%

Jerome Powell <1%

Polymarket

$30,038,055 Hac.

Kevin Warsh 93.8%

Michelle Bowman 1.6%

Judy Shelton 1.5%

Jerome Powell <1%

Polymarket

$30,038,055 Hac.

Kevin Warsh

$5,890,362 Hac.

94%

Judy Shelton

$12,764,479 Hac.

2%

Kevin Hassett

$1,241,118 Hac.

1%

Christopher Waller

$1,377,290 Hac.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$1,199,625 Hac.

1%

Stephen Miran

$1,015,249 Hac.

<1%

Scott Bessent

$3,200,629 Hac.

<1%

Rick Reider

$898,935 Hac.

1%

Michelle Bowman

$2,450,659 Hac.

2%

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in March, transmitted to the Senate on March 4, has solidified his trader consensus at 93.8% implied probability ahead of Jerome Powell's May 15 term expiration. Recent momentum stems from the Senate Banking Committee's scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing for next week—following a brief delay and his submission of financial disclosures revealing over $130 million in assets, with pledges to divest—clearing key procedural hurdles. This reflects the wisdom of crowds in a Republican-controlled Senate favoring the president's pick. Realistic challenges include GOP holdouts like Sen. Thom Tillis scrutinizing potential conflicts, hearing revelations prompting withdrawal, or failure to confirm before the deadline, potentially leaving Powell as acting chair.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$30,038,055
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Eki 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in March, transmitted to the Senate on March 4, has solidified his trader consensus at 93.8% implied probability ahead of Jerome Powell's May 15 term expiration. Recent momentum stems from the Senate Banking Committee's scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing for next week—following a brief delay and his submission of financial disclosures revealing over $130 million in assets, with pledges to divest—clearing key procedural hurdles. This reflects the wisdom of crowds in a Republican-controlled Senate favoring the president's pick. Realistic challenges include GOP holdouts like Sen. Thom Tillis scrutinizing potential conflicts, hearing revelations prompting withdrawal, or failure to confirm before the deadline, potentially leaving Powell as acting chair.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$30,038,055
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Eki 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"Fed Başkanı kim olacak?", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 9 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 94% ile "Kevin Warsh", ardından 2% ile "Judy Shelton" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 94¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 94% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "Fed Başkanı kim olacak?" toplam $30 million işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Mar 4, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"Fed Başkanı kim olacak?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 9 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"Fed Başkanı kim olacak?" için mevcut favori 94% ile "Kevin Warsh"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 94% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 2% ile "Judy Shelton"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"Fed Başkanı kim olacak?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.