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Dünya·Makro Göstergeler

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

Market icon
Dünya·Makro Göstergeler

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

42% olasılık
Polymarket
YENİ
42% olasılık
Polymarket
YENİ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Statistics Canada data released March 18 confirmed Canada's first annual population decline on record in 2025, dropping 102,000 people or 0.25% amid sharp reductions in non-permanent residents following federal immigration caps. For 2026, the Parliamentary Budget Officer projects flat population growth, with official targets stabilizing at 380,000 permanent residents and 385,000 new temporary arrivals per the November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan. Despite Q1 2026's continued quarterly drop of 103,000, trader consensus at 57% for "No" reflects expectations of policy-driven stabilization preventing a larger full-year decline than 2025's historic low, barring unforeseen emigration surges or further cuts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$1,503
Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2027
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Statistics Canada data released March 18 confirmed Canada's first annual population decline on record in 2025, dropping 102,000 people or 0.25% amid sharp reductions in non-permanent residents following federal immigration caps. For 2026, the Parliamentary Budget Officer projects flat population growth, with official targets stabilizing at 380,000 permanent residents and 385,000 new temporary arrivals per the November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan. Despite Q1 2026's continued quarterly drop of 103,000, trader consensus at 57% for "No" reflects expectations of policy-driven stabilization preventing a larger full-year decline than 2025's historic low, barring unforeseen emigration surges or further cuts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$1,503
Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2027
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?", yatırımcıların bu olayın gerçekleşip gerçekleşmeyeceğine inançlarına göre "Evet" veya "Hayır" hisseleri alıp sattığı Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut kitle kaynaklı olasılık "Yes" için 42%'dir. Örneğin, "Evet" 42¢ fiyatındaysa, piyasa toplu olarak bu olayın gerçekleşme olasılığını 42% olarak belirler. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

"Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?" Polymarket'te yeni oluşturulmuş bir piyasadır, Jan 29, 2026 tarihinde açıldı. Erken bir piyasa olarak, ilk yatırımcılar arasında yer alarak oranları belirleme ve piyasanın ilk fiyat sinyallerini oluşturma fırsatına sahipsiniz. Ayrıca piyasa zaman içinde ilgi kazandıkça hacmi ve işlem aktivitesini takip etmek için bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyebilirsiniz.

"Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için cevabın "Evet" mi yoksa "Hayır" mı olacağına inandığınızı seçin. Her tarafın piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını yansıtan bir güncel fiyatı vardır. Miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. "Evet" hisseleri satın alırsanız ve sonuç "Evet" olarak çözümlenirse, her hisse 1$ öder. "Hayır" olarak çözümlenirse, "Evet" hisseleriniz 0$ öder. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?" için mevcut olasılık "Yes" için 42%'dir. Bu, Polymarket topluluğunun şu anda bu olayın gerçekleşme olasılığını 42% olarak gördüğü anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar gerçek işlemlere dayalı olarak gerçek zamanlı güncellenir ve piyasanın ne olmasını beklediğine dair sürekli güncellenen bir sinyal sağlar.

"Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.