Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data amid sticky inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year—higher than February's 2.4%—while core eased modestly to 2.6%, and nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgency for policy shifts from the current 3.50%-3.75% Fed funds target range. March FOMC minutes reinforced this pause, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool consensus. Realistic challenges include pre-meeting surprises like hotter April retail sales or escalating energy prices from geopolitical tensions, though resolution nears in nine days with limited catalysts left.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоРішення ФРС у квітні?
Рішення ФРС у квітні?
Без змін 99.4%
Зниження на 25 базисних пунктів <1%
Підвищення на 25+ б.п. <1%
Зниження на понад 50 б. п. <1%
$114,321,423 Обс.
$114,321,423 Обс.
Apr 29, 2026
Зниження на понад 50 б. п.
<1%
Зниження на 25 базисних пунктів
<1%
Без змін
99%
Підвищення на 25+ б.п.
<1%
Без змін 99.4%
Зниження на 25 базисних пунктів <1%
Підвищення на 25+ б.п. <1%
Зниження на понад 50 б. п. <1%
$114,321,423 Обс.
$114,321,423 Обс.
Apr 29, 2026
Зниження на понад 50 б. п.
$42,201,051 Обс.
<1%
Зниження на 25 базисних пунктів
$23,288,384 Обс.
<1%
Без змін
$22,800,682 Обс.
99%
Підвищення на 25+ б.п.
$26,056,019 Обс.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data amid sticky inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year—higher than February's 2.4%—while core eased modestly to 2.6%, and nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgency for policy shifts from the current 3.50%-3.75% Fed funds target range. March FOMC minutes reinforced this pause, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool consensus. Realistic challenges include pre-meeting surprises like hotter April retail sales or escalating energy prices from geopolitical tensions, though resolution nears in nine days with limited catalysts left.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$114,321,423Дата завершення
Apr 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data amid sticky inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year—higher than February's 2.4%—while core eased modestly to 2.6%, and nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgency for policy shifts from the current 3.50%-3.75% Fed funds target range. March FOMC minutes reinforced this pause, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool consensus. Realistic challenges include pre-meeting surprises like hotter April retail sales or escalating energy prices from geopolitical tensions, though resolution nears in nine days with limited catalysts left.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$114,321,423Дата завершення
Apr 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data amid sticky inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year—higher than February's 2.4%—while core eased modestly to 2.6%, and nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgency for policy shifts from the current 3.50%-3.75% Fed funds target range. March FOMC minutes reinforced this pause, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool consensus. Realistic challenges include pre-meeting surprises like hotter April retail sales or escalating energy prices from geopolitical tensions, though resolution nears in nine days with limited catalysts left.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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