The Democratic Party holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the CA-01 House race because recent redistricting added Democratic-leaning areas to the Northern California district, shifting its Cook Partisan Voter Index and voter registration edge toward Democrats at 39% versus 32% Republican. Incumbent Republican Doug LaMalfa’s death in January 2026 created an open seat and special election timeline, but polling for the November general election shows Democratic candidates such as Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney leading Republican James Gallagher by double digits in head-to-head matchups. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling factors, with limited movement expected absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. A Republican victory would require unusually strong performance by Gallagher in the June special primary or a significant late swing in voter sentiment before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$22,046 KL.
$22,046 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
6%
$22,046 KL.
$22,046 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,173 KL.
92%
Republican Party
$7,873 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the CA-01 House race because recent redistricting added Democratic-leaning areas to the Northern California district, shifting its Cook Partisan Voter Index and voter registration edge toward Democrats at 39% versus 32% Republican. Incumbent Republican Doug LaMalfa’s death in January 2026 created an open seat and special election timeline, but polling for the November general election shows Democratic candidates such as Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney leading Republican James Gallagher by double digits in head-to-head matchups. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling factors, with limited movement expected absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. A Republican victory would require unusually strong performance by Gallagher in the June special primary or a significant late swing in voter sentiment before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$22,046Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the CA-01 House race because recent redistricting added Democratic-leaning areas to the Northern California district, shifting its Cook Partisan Voter Index and voter registration edge toward Democrats at 39% versus 32% Republican. Incumbent Republican Doug LaMalfa’s death in January 2026 created an open seat and special election timeline, but polling for the November general election shows Democratic candidates such as Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney leading Republican James Gallagher by double digits in head-to-head matchups. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling factors, with limited movement expected absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. A Republican victory would require unusually strong performance by Gallagher in the June special primary or a significant late swing in voter sentiment before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$22,046Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the CA-01 House race because recent redistricting added Democratic-leaning areas to the Northern California district, shifting its Cook Partisan Voter Index and voter registration edge toward Democrats at 39% versus 32% Republican. Incumbent Republican Doug LaMalfa’s death in January 2026 created an open seat and special election timeline, but polling for the November general election shows Democratic candidates such as Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney leading Republican James Gallagher by double digits in head-to-head matchups. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling factors, with limited movement expected absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. A Republican victory would require unusually strong performance by Gallagher in the June special primary or a significant late swing in voter sentiment before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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