Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, representing NJ-04 since 1981, won his 2024 general election with 67% of the vote in a district spanning Republican-leaning areas of Monmouth and Ocean counties. Recent primaries confirmed Smith’s unopposed Republican nomination and Democrat Rachel Peace’s selection, with no major shifts in voter registration or polling reported since. Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Republican outcome based on the district’s consistent partisan tilt and Smith’s established record. Potential challengers to this positioning include an unexpected national Democratic wave, a significant late scandal, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for reversal before November 3.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$5,448 KL.
94%
Democratic Party
$3,991 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, representing NJ-04 since 1981, won his 2024 general election with 67% of the vote in a district spanning Republican-leaning areas of Monmouth and Ocean counties. Recent primaries confirmed Smith’s unopposed Republican nomination and Democrat Rachel Peace’s selection, with no major shifts in voter registration or polling reported since. Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Republican outcome based on the district’s consistent partisan tilt and Smith’s established record. Potential challengers to this positioning include an unexpected national Democratic wave, a significant late scandal, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for reversal before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$9,439Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, representing NJ-04 since 1981, won his 2024 general election with 67% of the vote in a district spanning Republican-leaning areas of Monmouth and Ocean counties. Recent primaries confirmed Smith’s unopposed Republican nomination and Democrat Rachel Peace’s selection, with no major shifts in voter registration or polling reported since. Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Republican outcome based on the district’s consistent partisan tilt and Smith’s established record. Potential challengers to this positioning include an unexpected national Democratic wave, a significant late scandal, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for reversal before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$9,439Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, representing NJ-04 since 1981, won his 2024 general election with 67% of the vote in a district spanning Republican-leaning areas of Monmouth and Ocean counties. Recent primaries confirmed Smith’s unopposed Republican nomination and Democrat Rachel Peace’s selection, with no major shifts in voter registration or polling reported since. Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Republican outcome based on the district’s consistent partisan tilt and Smith’s established record. Potential challengers to this positioning include an unexpected national Democratic wave, a significant late scandal, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for reversal before November 3.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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