Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race due to his established position in a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in a D+5 partisan voting index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Likely Democratic. Costa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42 percent of the vote against Kyle Kirkland's 26 percent, bolstered by superior fundraising exceeding $1.3 million compared to Kirkland's roughly $340,000. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Costa aligns with the district's recent history, including his 52.6 percent win in 2024. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-21 House Election Winner
CA-21 House Election Winner
$27,331 KL.
$27,331 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Jim Costa (D)
94%
Kyle Kirkland (R)
7%
$27,331 KL.
$27,331 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Jim Costa (D)
$15,163 KL.
94%
Kyle Kirkland (R)
$12,168 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race due to his established position in a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in a D+5 partisan voting index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Likely Democratic. Costa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42 percent of the vote against Kyle Kirkland's 26 percent, bolstered by superior fundraising exceeding $1.3 million compared to Kirkland's roughly $340,000. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Costa aligns with the district's recent history, including his 52.6 percent win in 2024. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$27,331Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race due to his established position in a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in a D+5 partisan voting index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Likely Democratic. Costa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42 percent of the vote against Kyle Kirkland's 26 percent, bolstered by superior fundraising exceeding $1.3 million compared to Kirkland's roughly $340,000. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Costa aligns with the district's recent history, including his 52.6 percent win in 2024. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$27,331Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race due to his established position in a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in a D+5 partisan voting index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Likely Democratic. Costa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42 percent of the vote against Kyle Kirkland's 26 percent, bolstered by superior fundraising exceeding $1.3 million compared to Kirkland's roughly $340,000. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Costa aligns with the district's recent history, including his 52.6 percent win in 2024. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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