The DOJ's April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell—focused on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and congressional testimony—underpins the 98% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. Prosecutors found no evidence of wrongdoing after subpoenas were quashed in March for lacking probable cause, shifting scrutiny to the Fed's inspector general. Powell completed his chair term in May and transitioned to governor through 2028 amid normalized monetary policy debates, with no active federal cases or credible allegations emerging since. Tail risks remain limited to hypothetical new political or unrelated actions, though judicial precedent and institutional norms make such outcomes remote in the near term.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
2% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
2% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The DOJ's April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell—focused on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and congressional testimony—underpins the 98% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. Prosecutors found no evidence of wrongdoing after subpoenas were quashed in March for lacking probable cause, shifting scrutiny to the Fed's inspector general. Powell completed his chair term in May and transitioned to governor through 2028 amid normalized monetary policy debates, with no active federal cases or credible allegations emerging since. Tail risks remain limited to hypothetical new political or unrelated actions, though judicial precedent and institutional norms make such outcomes remote in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Khối lượng
$5,637Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The DOJ's April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell—focused on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and congressional testimony—underpins the 98% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. Prosecutors found no evidence of wrongdoing after subpoenas were quashed in March for lacking probable cause, shifting scrutiny to the Fed's inspector general. Powell completed his chair term in May and transitioned to governor through 2028 amid normalized monetary policy debates, with no active federal cases or credible allegations emerging since. Tail risks remain limited to hypothetical new political or unrelated actions, though judicial precedent and institutional norms make such outcomes remote in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$5,637Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The DOJ's April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell—focused on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and congressional testimony—underpins the 98% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. Prosecutors found no evidence of wrongdoing after subpoenas were quashed in March for lacking probable cause, shifting scrutiny to the Fed's inspector general. Powell completed his chair term in May and transitioned to governor through 2028 amid normalized monetary policy debates, with no active federal cases or credible allegations emerging since. Tail risks remain limited to hypothetical new political or unrelated actions, though judicial precedent and institutional norms make such outcomes remote in the near term.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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