Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, reflecting redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted boundaries toward more Democratic-leaning East Bay and San Joaquin Valley voters, producing a D+8 Partisan Voter Index. Harder advanced easily from the June 2 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against Republican John McBride and secured all major forecasters' Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. His substantial fundraising edge exceeds $4 million compared with McBride's under $55,000, while the district's voter registration and recent voting patterns reinforce Democratic advantages. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome near 93-95 percent, consistent with historical incumbency and structural factors in similar California seats. A late scandal, health event affecting Harder, or unusually strong Republican turnout could still alter the result before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$20,128 交易量
$20,128 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
94%
共和黨
6%
$20,128 交易量
$20,128 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$12,820 交易量
94%
共和黨
$7,309 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, reflecting redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted boundaries toward more Democratic-leaning East Bay and San Joaquin Valley voters, producing a D+8 Partisan Voter Index. Harder advanced easily from the June 2 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against Republican John McBride and secured all major forecasters' Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. His substantial fundraising edge exceeds $4 million compared with McBride's under $55,000, while the district's voter registration and recent voting patterns reinforce Democratic advantages. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome near 93-95 percent, consistent with historical incumbency and structural factors in similar California seats. A late scandal, health event affecting Harder, or unusually strong Republican turnout could still alter the result before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$20,128結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, reflecting redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted boundaries toward more Democratic-leaning East Bay and San Joaquin Valley voters, producing a D+8 Partisan Voter Index. Harder advanced easily from the June 2 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against Republican John McBride and secured all major forecasters' Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. His substantial fundraising edge exceeds $4 million compared with McBride's under $55,000, while the district's voter registration and recent voting patterns reinforce Democratic advantages. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome near 93-95 percent, consistent with historical incumbency and structural factors in similar California seats. A late scandal, health event affecting Harder, or unusually strong Republican turnout could still alter the result before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$20,128結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETIncumbent Democrat Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, reflecting redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted boundaries toward more Democratic-leaning East Bay and San Joaquin Valley voters, producing a D+8 Partisan Voter Index. Harder advanced easily from the June 2 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against Republican John McBride and secured all major forecasters' Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. His substantial fundraising edge exceeds $4 million compared with McBride's under $55,000, while the district's voter registration and recent voting patterns reinforce Democratic advantages. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome near 93-95 percent, consistent with historical incumbency and structural factors in similar California seats. A late scandal, health event affecting Harder, or unusually strong Republican turnout could still alter the result before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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