Recent numerical weather prediction runs from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a peak temperature near 33–34 °C for Chengdu on August 24, driven by clearing skies after several days of monsoon-related showers that have kept recent highs around 31–32 °C. Afternoon convective instability and variable cloud cover remain the dominant uncertainties, as scattered thunderstorms could cap insolation and limit surface heating while dry slots would allow stronger radiative warming in the Sichuan Basin. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 34–35 °C because ensemble spreads show only modest differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, with higher outcomes (36 °C+) requiring unexpectedly clear, subsident conditions and lower ones tied to earlier or heavier precipitation. Updated model guidance ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日成都最高溫度？
8月24日成都最高溫度？
34°C 23%
35°C 21%
38℃或以上 18%
36°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
28°C或以下
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
11%
33°C
13%
34°C
23%
35°C
21%
36°C
13%
37°C
10%
38℃或以上
18%
34°C 23%
35°C 21%
38℃或以上 18%
36°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
28°C或以下
$5 交易量
4%
29°C
$5 交易量
4%
30°C
$5 交易量
4%
31°C
$30 交易量
2%
32°C
$20 交易量
11%
33°C
$0 交易量
13%
34°C
$0 交易量
23%
35°C
$0 交易量
21%
36°C
$0 交易量
13%
37°C
$0 交易量
10%
38℃或以上
$5 交易量
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a peak temperature near 33–34 °C for Chengdu on August 24, driven by clearing skies after several days of monsoon-related showers that have kept recent highs around 31–32 °C. Afternoon convective instability and variable cloud cover remain the dominant uncertainties, as scattered thunderstorms could cap insolation and limit surface heating while dry slots would allow stronger radiative warming in the Sichuan Basin. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 34–35 °C because ensemble spreads show only modest differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, with higher outcomes (36 °C+) requiring unexpectedly clear, subsident conditions and lower ones tied to earlier or heavier precipitation. Updated model guidance ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$70結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a peak temperature near 33–34 °C for Chengdu on August 24, driven by clearing skies after several days of monsoon-related showers that have kept recent highs around 31–32 °C. Afternoon convective instability and variable cloud cover remain the dominant uncertainties, as scattered thunderstorms could cap insolation and limit surface heating while dry slots would allow stronger radiative warming in the Sichuan Basin. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 34–35 °C because ensemble spreads show only modest differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, with higher outcomes (36 °C+) requiring unexpectedly clear, subsident conditions and lower ones tied to earlier or heavier precipitation. Updated model guidance ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$70結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent numerical weather prediction runs from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a peak temperature near 33–34 °C for Chengdu on August 24, driven by clearing skies after several days of monsoon-related showers that have kept recent highs around 31–32 °C. Afternoon convective instability and variable cloud cover remain the dominant uncertainties, as scattered thunderstorms could cap insolation and limit surface heating while dry slots would allow stronger radiative warming in the Sichuan Basin. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 34–35 °C because ensemble spreads show only modest differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, with higher outcomes (36 °C+) requiring unexpectedly clear, subsident conditions and lower ones tied to earlier or heavier precipitation. Updated model guidance ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions