Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching 14°C or higher on April 8, aligned with AEMET climatological data showing early April average highs of 17–18°C and overcast skies limited to about 42% of days. Recent ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project continued mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure influence over Iberia, following stable spring patterns with no notable cold fronts or precipitation events in the past week to disrupt norms. Lower outcomes capture tail risks from variable wind patterns or nocturnal inversions, though historical baselines indicate such drops below 14°C occur on fewer than 20% of early April days. AEMET's daily forecast updates through April 7 will refine these probabilities amid inherent model uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Madrid on April 8?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 8?
14°C or higher 84%
12°C 6%
11°C 5%
13°C 5.0%
最新
最新
2026-04-08
4°C or below
1%
5°C
2%
6°C
4%
7°C
4%
8°C
4%
9°C
4%
10°C
4%
11°C
5%
12°C
6%
13°C
5%
14°C or higher
84%
14°C or higher 84%
12°C 6%
11°C 5%
13°C 5.0%
最新
最新
2026-04-08
4°C or below
$377 交易量
1%
5°C
$0 交易量
2%
6°C
$0 交易量
4%
7°C
$0 交易量
4%
8°C
$0 交易量
4%
9°C
$0 交易量
4%
10°C
$0 交易量
4%
11°C
$0 交易量
5%
12°C
$0 交易量
6%
13°C
$22 交易量
5%
14°C or higher
$198 交易量
84%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching 14°C or higher on April 8, aligned with AEMET climatological data showing early April average highs of 17–18°C and overcast skies limited to about 42% of days. Recent ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project continued mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure influence over Iberia, following stable spring patterns with no notable cold fronts or precipitation events in the past week to disrupt norms. Lower outcomes capture tail risks from variable wind patterns or nocturnal inversions, though historical baselines indicate such drops below 14°C occur on fewer than 20% of early April days. AEMET's daily forecast updates through April 7 will refine these probabilities amid inherent model uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
交易量
$597結束日期
2026-04-08市場開放時間
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching 14°C or higher on April 8, aligned with AEMET climatological data showing early April average highs of 17–18°C and overcast skies limited to about 42% of days. Recent ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project continued mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure influence over Iberia, following stable spring patterns with no notable cold fronts or precipitation events in the past week to disrupt norms. Lower outcomes capture tail risks from variable wind patterns or nocturnal inversions, though historical baselines indicate such drops below 14°C occur on fewer than 20% of early April days. AEMET's daily forecast updates through April 7 will refine these probabilities amid inherent model uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$597結束日期
2026-04-08市場開放時間
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching 14°C or higher on April 8, aligned with AEMET climatological data showing early April average highs of 17–18°C and overcast skies limited to about 42% of days. Recent ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project continued mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure influence over Iberia, following stable spring patterns with no notable cold fronts or precipitation events in the past week to disrupt norms. Lower outcomes capture tail risks from variable wind patterns or nocturnal inversions, though historical baselines indicate such drops below 14°C occur on fewer than 20% of early April days. AEMET's daily forecast updates through April 7 will refine these probabilities amid inherent model uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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