Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which project Madrid's highest temperature on April 5 at 24-27°C amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia, fostering subsidence and sunnier skies conducive to warming. The near-tie between 24°C and 26°C at 26.5% implied probability stems from model spread: some ensemble members show moderated peaks due to lingering northern airflow or partial cloudiness, while others indicate fuller ridging for stronger heating above climatological April norms of 17-19°C. AEMET's seasonal outlook supports above-average spring warmth, but daily updates from new model runs—expected through April 4—could refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution based on official Barajas Airport observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Madrid on April 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 5?
26°C 27%
24°C 25%
25°C 18%
23°C 12%
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
12%
24°C
25%
25°C
18%
26°C
27%
27°C
12%
28°C
5%
29°C or higher
3%
26°C 27%
24°C 25%
25°C 18%
23°C 12%
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
12%
24°C
25%
25°C
18%
26°C
27%
27°C
12%
28°C
5%
29°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 1, 2026, 6:47 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which project Madrid's highest temperature on April 5 at 24-27°C amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia, fostering subsidence and sunnier skies conducive to warming. The near-tie between 24°C and 26°C at 26.5% implied probability stems from model spread: some ensemble members show moderated peaks due to lingering northern airflow or partial cloudiness, while others indicate fuller ridging for stronger heating above climatological April norms of 17-19°C. AEMET's seasonal outlook supports above-average spring warmth, but daily updates from new model runs—expected through April 4—could refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution based on official Barajas Airport observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions