Official Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts point to a 31°C maximum at the Incheon station on August 23 under mostly cloudy conditions with a 30% chance of precipitation, aligning closely with the market’s leading 31°C outcome. Nearby model guidance and seasonal norms for late-August Seoul support highs clustered around 30–32°C, where small differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing from the Yellow Sea, or scattered convective showers can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. High humidity and light winds typical of the East Asian monsoon further compress the range, leaving limited upside for 33°C or higher unless clearer skies develop unexpectedly.