Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-100% implied probability to a 27°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 2, driven by official observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport peaking at 81°F (27°C) around 4 p.m. local time amid persistent cloud cover and high humidity that limited solar heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles updated early April 2, projected this exact cap under overcast conditions typical for early April climatology, where average highs hover near 26°C. With sunset nearing and stable low-level moisture suppressing further warming, resolution appears locked; only an improbable sudden clearing of clouds for late-afternoon insolation could push toward 29°C or higher.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 2?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 2?
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$223,089 交易量
$223,089 交易量
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$223,089 交易量
$223,089 交易量
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-100% implied probability to a 27°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 2, driven by official observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport peaking at 81°F (27°C) around 4 p.m. local time amid persistent cloud cover and high humidity that limited solar heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles updated early April 2, projected this exact cap under overcast conditions typical for early April climatology, where average highs hover near 26°C. With sunset nearing and stable low-level moisture suppressing further warming, resolution appears locked; only an improbable sudden clearing of clouds for late-afternoon insolation could push toward 29°C or higher.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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