Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月19日東京氣溫最高？
7月19日東京氣溫最高？
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$58,290 交易量
$58,290 交易量
2026-07-19
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$58,290 交易量
$58,290 交易量
2026-07-19
26°C or below
$467 交易量
No
27°C
$250 交易量
No
28°C
$7,019 交易量
No
29°C
$12,130 交易量
No
30°C
$5,617 交易量
No
31°C
$6,222 交易量
No
32°C
$7,196 交易量
Yes
33°C
$7,828 交易量
No
34°C
$8,203 交易量
No
35°C
$2,841 交易量
No
36°C or higher
$516 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$58,290結束日期
2026-07-19市場開放時間
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$58,290結束日期
2026-07-19市場開放時間
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions