Strong consensus among official forecasts and real-time observations from MetService and regional models drives the 99.4% market-implied probability for a 15°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 29, 2026. Late-winter conditions feature northwesterly winds of 15–25 knots under mostly clear skies, consistent with climatological highs near 13–14°C that current guidance has revised modestly upward due to a transient ridge. This alignment of ensemble outputs and airport station readings leaves little room for deviation at this late stage. An unexpected wind shift or increased cloud cover could cap readings at 14°C, while stronger insolation might push toward 16°C, though both scenarios remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月29日惠靈頓的最高溫度?
15°C 99.4%
16°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
$66,219 交易量
$66,219 交易量
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
99%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 99.4%
16°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
$66,219 交易量
$66,219 交易量
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
99%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Strong consensus among official forecasts and real-time observations from MetService and regional models drives the 99.4% market-implied probability for a 15°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 29, 2026. Late-winter conditions feature northwesterly winds of 15–25 knots under mostly clear skies, consistent with climatological highs near 13–14°C that current guidance has revised modestly upward due to a transient ridge. This alignment of ensemble outputs and airport station readings leaves little room for deviation at this late stage. An unexpected wind shift or increased cloud cover could cap readings at 14°C, while stronger insolation might push toward 16°C, though both scenarios remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions