Incumbent Republican Troy Downing secured the party nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary for Montana's 2nd Congressional District, while Democrat Brian Miller advanced from a contested primary. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+15 Partisan Voter Index, eastern Montana base, and the party's 66-34% margin in the prior cycle. Traders assign the Republican nominee 94.5% odds due to this structural advantage and limited post-primary polling. A significant national midterm swing toward Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline to alter the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$42,415 交易量
$42,415 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
95%
民主黨
6%
$42,415 交易量
$42,415 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$25,944 交易量
95%
民主黨
$16,471 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Troy Downing secured the party nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary for Montana's 2nd Congressional District, while Democrat Brian Miller advanced from a contested primary. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+15 Partisan Voter Index, eastern Montana base, and the party's 66-34% margin in the prior cycle. Traders assign the Republican nominee 94.5% odds due to this structural advantage and limited post-primary polling. A significant national midterm swing toward Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$42,415結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Troy Downing secured the party nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary for Montana's 2nd Congressional District, while Democrat Brian Miller advanced from a contested primary. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+15 Partisan Voter Index, eastern Montana base, and the party's 66-34% margin in the prior cycle. Traders assign the Republican nominee 94.5% odds due to this structural advantage and limited post-primary polling. A significant national midterm swing toward Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$42,415結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETIncumbent Republican Troy Downing secured the party nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary for Montana's 2nd Congressional District, while Democrat Brian Miller advanced from a contested primary. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+15 Partisan Voter Index, eastern Montana base, and the party's 66-34% margin in the prior cycle. Traders assign the Republican nominee 94.5% odds due to this structural advantage and limited post-primary polling. A significant national midterm swing toward Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline to alter the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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