Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, including its support for the Democratic presidential nominee by double digits in recent cycles. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and faces Republican state senator David Brock Smith, who prevailed in a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in Oregon since 2002, and forecasts project Merkley around 60 percent of the vote. Trader consensus at 97 percent reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the contest. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican environment could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the state's partisan baseline make such shifts unlikely before November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-02
民主黨
97%
共和黨
2%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
民主黨
$3,648 交易量
97%
共和黨
$3,046 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, including its support for the Democratic presidential nominee by double digits in recent cycles. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and faces Republican state senator David Brock Smith, who prevailed in a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in Oregon since 2002, and forecasts project Merkley around 60 percent of the vote. Trader consensus at 97 percent reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the contest. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican environment could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the state's partisan baseline make such shifts unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$6,694結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, including its support for the Democratic presidential nominee by double digits in recent cycles. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and faces Republican state senator David Brock Smith, who prevailed in a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in Oregon since 2002, and forecasts project Merkley around 60 percent of the vote. Trader consensus at 97 percent reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the contest. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican environment could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the state's partisan baseline make such shifts unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$6,694結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, including its support for the Democratic presidential nominee by double digits in recent cycles. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and faces Republican state senator David Brock Smith, who prevailed in a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in Oregon since 2002, and forecasts project Merkley around 60 percent of the vote. Trader consensus at 97 percent reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the contest. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican environment could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the state's partisan baseline make such shifts unlikely before November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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